this is just my gut feeling and personal analysis. im not a politics analyst and i dont pretend to be. read with ur brain turned on!
decided to write down what my intuition says about whats gonna happen to the world in the next few years.
taiwan & japan
imo taiwan is gonna get retaken by china within the next 10 years. theres gonna be so much drama, crying and war unfortunately... but in the end, the US will just abandon them.
and then it falls on japan. after taiwan, japan is at huge risk of being invaded by china too. thats why japan needs to invest heavy in defense and defend taiwan with everything they got! they know if taiwan falls, theyre next.
japan is super dependent on imports (doesnt have good territory for crops) and everything passes through the sea near china. whoever controls the strait, controls japans survival.
the americas
on our side, US influence is gonna be total:
- mexico: the US will exercise way more control.
- venezuela: its basically gonna be US territory.
- bolivia: might get invaded too if latin american countries dont organize themselves soon.
and brazil? needs to invest way more in defense! brazil should be the leader of the latin american bloc but... its all gonna end up under the US. especially the northern region, due to geographic and military proximity to them. high pressure and total dependence.
oceania
australia and nz are gonna suffer a lot of pressure and influence from china.
africa
will stay the same, suffering a lot of influence from chinese investments and debt traps.
the world in 4 blocs
at the end of the day, i see the world divided into four big blocs to keep the power balance:
| # | Bloc | Region of Influence |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Russia Bloc | eastern europe, parts of central asia |
| 2 | European Union Bloc | western and central europe |
| 3 | China Bloc | east asia, south korea, japan and oceania |
| 4 | USA Bloc | north america + strong presence in south america |
(and the middle east keeps going with the disputes between israel and palestine...)
yeah... its a pretty scary future, but its what i see unfolding. hope i get most of it wrong!